Skip to main content

Turkey’s risk grade far from safe

Turkey’s risk premium has sharply decreased over the past several months, but an array of economic and political factors threatens to undo the trend.
A man waits in front of a currency exchange agency as a screen shows rates near Grand bazaar, in Istanbul, on September 24, 2020. - Turkey's central bank on September 24, 2020 raised its main interest for the first time since September 2018, boosting the rate by two percentage points to help the lira recover from historic lows. (Photo by Ozan KOSE / AFP) (Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images)
Read in 

Turkey’s risk premium has significantly eased since Ankara abandoned a much-criticized interest rate policy to salvage its crisis-hit economy in November, but the downtick could well reverse down the road amid ongoing economic and political issues, including Turkey’s thorny ties with the United States and Europe.

The risk premium — a major indicator that foreign investors consider before putting money in a given country — is reflected in credit default swaps (CDS), which are essentially financial deals that determine the cost of insuring exposure to a country’s sovereign debt. The higher a country’s CDS premium, the higher its borrowing costs, as the CDS premium inevitably adds to the price of borrowed money in addition to interest rates. 

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.