Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should have been able to relax after Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit announced Oct. 15 that he would not order a criminal investigation into his stock dealings and explained once again why he would not indict him in the submarine affair.

The first incident involves a stock purchase that netted Netanyahu a hefty return when he sold the shares back to his American millionaire cousin Nathan Milikowsky. The second relates to Israel’s purchase of submarines and warships from German steelmaker Thyssenkrupp.  

The two affairs continue to dog Netanyahu in the protest movement emerging against his conduct and continued hold on power. A petition submitted to the Supreme Court includes affidavits from senior former defense officials. Netanyahu’s senior government partner and Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced Oct. 15 that he was considering a commission of inquiry within the Defense Ministry to delve into the submarine affair involving billion-dollar defense acquisitions from the German company. Gantz, himself a former military chief who used the submarine affair to goad Netanyahu in three recent election campaigns, is now trying to use it to force the prime minister's hand on other issues, such as presenting and approving the state budget and appointing a state prosecutor and a national police chief.

The submarine affair could prove to be the riskiest one for Netanyahu. Its potential for political fallout for him is enormous. The three indictments that Mandelblit filed against Netanyahu in January 2020, including for bribery, did not dent support for the prime minister among his followers, who were unimpressed by accusations of illicit gifts and attempts to take control of the Israeli media. However, the submarine affair was an entirely different opera. Netanyahu knew that if he were accused of exploiting defense procurement for gain for himself or his associates, even his most ardent supporters would abandon him.