Skip to main content

Israeli security chiefs warn that annexation could ignite the West Bank

Israel’s security chiefs are presenting the political echelons all the options and grim scenarios of what could happen if annexation takes place.
A Palestinian demonstrator pulls burning tires during a protest against Israel's plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, near the Jewish settlement of Beit El, near Ramallah June 19, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamad Torokman - RC2CCH92Y7IK

Just a week away from the July 1 target date for the start of official action on possible Israeli annexation of 30% of the West Bank, Israel’s military and security chiefs have no earthly idea what is going to happen — how, when and if at all. The chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the heads of the Shin Bet security agency and of the Mossad are trying to read the minds of the decision-makers, meanwhile preparing for every imaginable scenario. The IDF and Shin Bet have been conducting discussions in recent weeks about the possible annexation and its implications, and have drawn up a precise threat map. The Mossad is conducting a similarly deep assessment. The heads of the security agencies are awaiting a directive from the political echelons. Before that happens, an in-depth discussion is planned to allow the defense and security chiefs to present decision-makers with their views on the annexation move.

The forum for this expected session is yet unclear — whether the Security Cabinet, the mini-security cabinet or the quartet, also known as the “kitchen galley,” consisting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin for the Likud and Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi for the Blue and White party. The interior minister and leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, Aryeh Deri, one of Israel’s most seasoned and experienced politicians, may be asked to join them. Deri, of all people, whose voters hold distinctly right-wing views, has been tagged over the years as highly pragmatic. If the professionals participating in the crucial session express warnings about the annexation, Deri will be the one who gives them top priority. As a young member of Israel’s Security Cabinet in 1991, Deri helped then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir fend off insistent calls by then-Defense Minister Moshe Arens to mount an aerial strike in western Iraq during the first Gulf war. In hindsight, Shamir and Deri turned out to have been right.

Access the Middle East news and analysis you can trust

Join our community of Middle East readers to experience all of Al-Monitor, including 24/7 news, analyses, memos, reports and newsletters.

Subscribe

Only $100 per year.