Barely a month since the unity-coronavirus government was sworn in, signs are mounting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing the ground for its dispersal and for a fourth election. When and how isn’t clear as he keeps the cards close to his chest, but one can’t ignore the election atmosphere hanging over the whole political establishment. 

According to all estimates, early next week Netanyahu will announce his decision to bring a one-year budget for approval to the government and the Knesset in September. Such a decision would constitute a contravention of the coalition agreement between the Likud and Blue and White that a two-year budget would be approved in order to ensure political stability. 

Netanyahu’s demand to reopen the agreement and change it is backed by the argument that because of the coronavirus crisis and the lack of economic stability, it’s not appropriate to decide on a longer-term budget. This view is shared by Finance Minister Israel Katz and all of the senior staff of his ministry. 

But this move isn’t motivated by purely economic concerns and this change does have dramatic political ramifications. Israeli law stipulates that the vote on the budget is tantamount to a confidence vote in the government. If a one-year budget is approved in September, another budget would have to be presented to the government next year. This, in turn, could help Netanyahu manufacture a political crisis and disband the government. Why? Because, according to the law, if the 2021 budget is not approved by March 2021, the Knesset would have to be dissolved. Then the election would be moved up and Netanyahu would vie in it as an incumbent prime minister. In this scenario, Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s dream of becoming prime minister in October 2021 as called for in his and Netanyahu's agreement would be shelved permanently, and it’s completely unclear whether Gantz would run in another election.