President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) is facing its first major loss in member registration numbers in 17 years.

In 2013, as news about fake memberships in the ruling party made headlines, a senior AKP official told me that this was “like when you face a bear; if you can make yourself appear bigger than you are, the animal will run away.” Indeed, for anyone in opposition, it was disheartening to hear the question, “How can you win against a party with 10 million registered members?”

That sums up the importance of member registration for Erdogan in the last 17 years. He always boasted about growing party numbers, with the total reaching up to 10 million members in 2018. The gap between the AKP and its rivals is significant. For example, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has around 1.5 million registered members.

The high number of the AKP’s registered membership is particularly perplexing when we consider that most people in Turkey would refrain from making their party identity publicly known. Voter registration is automatic. Voters are not required to fill out any forms to register as they do in the US political system. However, membership in a political party requires filling out a form. Official party membership could produce more disadvantages than benefits. For example, central government employees are banned by law from being members of a political party.