The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group spring meetings begin this week in Washington. As finance ministers and economic policy teams enjoy the cherry blossoms, the forecast for growth in the Middle East and North Africa looks more like winter. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth across the Middle East and North Africa regions is expected to average 1.5% in 2019. Growth prospects are low, tied to low growth in the United States and Europe. There are pockets of higher growth inside the region, notably in places where reforms are underway — or the bounce back from war or bleaker times has begun. Where there are bright spots says a lot about the outlook for the region as a whole. For example, "notable expansions" are expected in Yemen and Iraq in 2019, according to the World Bank.

In Egypt, for example, the return of its tourism sector has been as important as new taxes and reduced subsidies as a boost to government revenue. Egypt has made some difficult reforms — with a very heavy hand and a cost to human capital — setting an example to the region wary of public reaction to structural reform. As conditions of Egypt’s IMF program, local fuel prices will be indexed to global ones and most energy subsidies will be eliminated by mid-2019. But Egypt has been rewarded already with praise from the World Bank and with its new status as the only country in the Middle East with higher expected growth in 2019 (at 5.5%) than its respective trend from 2011-2016, according to research by Standard Chartered.

But if Egypt is the best-case scenario of reform implementation (and not all analysts agree on its early success), there is clearly a regional dilemma. Breaking down the distortions in political economies of the region is fraught with political risk, but what has been accessible is debt. And there has been a surge in sovereign bond issues and loans, both commercial and multilateral, over the past four years.

In its new Regional Outlook, the World Bank warns that structural reforms have urgency — this to a region addicted to recycled petrodollars as a source of capital, inefficient subsidies of energy and water, and bloated and unproductive public sector workforces. So the World Bank suggests a "Moonshot" strategy to invest in digital economies and workforce productivity, especially for young people. The demographics of the region have impeded job creation for young people who have had good educational opportunities but few chances at climbing a career ladder, especially in private companies. To embrace subsidy reform and digitization are good ideas, but it will be hard to reach the moon when the medium term will be weighed down by debt.