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Polls show Erdogan ahead, but should Turks trust them?

Researchers have been publishing a slew of polls showing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leading in his re-election bid, but a lack of transparency in methodology and funding mean the results are far from reliable.

Turkey has entered the final stretch of a historic election campaign and public opinion polls are giving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a clear lead in his re-election bid. Yet a lack of confidence surrounding opinion research in Turkish politics may be skewing results ahead of an election that may be too close to call.

Electoral rules restrict polling in the final 10 days of a campaign to prevent such research from swaying voters, and pollsters have rushed to release data, with a handful putting Erdogan’s share of the vote above 50% — the percentage needed to win in a first-round of voting on June 24. If he falls short of half of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates will be held on July 8.

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