Struggling against global headwinds and domestic woes, the Turkish economy is now suffering additional blows, from political tensions between Ankara and Washington. Following an unprecedented spat that led to the mutual suspension of visa services in October, a court case against Turkish nationals accused of violating US sanctions against Iran has emerged as a new flashpoint in bilateral relations amid reports that the main suspect has invoked the name of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the trial, scheduled to begin Nov. 27.

Last week, the embattled Turkish lira tumbled further over developments in the case, including reports that Reza Zarrab, the Iranian-Turkish businessman who allegedly led the sanctions-evading scheme, might be preparing to plead guilty and cooperate with prosecutors. In September, US prosecutors indicted former Economy Minister Mehmet Zafer Caglayan and executives of the state-owned Halkbank for suspected collusion with Zarrab, upping the political stakes in the case.

The lira’s depreciation is of serious concern to Ankara, as it directly affects the country’s inflation rate, debt repayment and borrowing capacity, and the government’s ability to manage all this ahead of crucial elections in 2019.

What lies at the core of the lira’s depreciation is the Turkish economy’s reliance on external funds — in particular, short-term portfolio investments known as “hot money” — and the unusual increase in the debt to gross domestic product ratio. Sustaining the flow of hot money is of vital importance for the Turkish economy, whose fragile growth pattern suggests that it expands in times of abundant flows of hot money and shrinks when the hot money chooses to go elsewhere.