Turkey’s domestic agenda is tied to the April 16 referendum on a set of constitutional changes, which the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has designed as a steppingstone to a one-man regime under the guise of a shift to an executive presidency.

The move comes at a time when the Turkish economy has begun to contract, with some sectors, such as the manufacturing industry, already in crisis. Brought to parliament in December, the amendments fueled political tensions and added to the country’s already high-risk premium, further stoking the crisis and leading international credit-rating agencies to cut Turkey to noninvestment grade.

Simultaneously, Turkey has also lost the tailwinds of global trends, as international investors began pulling out from emerging economies, including Turkey, and turned to the United States, lured by President Donald Trump’s election promises to boost economic growth. As a result, the dollar began to gain value fast. The greenback rose 20% against the Turkish lira in 2016, atop 25% the previous year. For Turkey’s private sector, which runs a net foreign exchange deficit of $210 billion, this meant a heavier debt burden. Manufacturers relying on import materials faced higher costs, which translated to price hikes for consumers. In January, Turkey’s consumer inflation reached 9% year on year, signaling a climb toward two-digit figures. The increase in producer prices, meanwhile, was close to 14%. In the labor market, the downturn sent the jobless rate above 12%.

The gloomy outlook does not bode well for the AKP in the run-up to the referendum. Opinion polls suggest a tight race, and the “no” camp is in high spirits. Scrambling to minimize the fallout from economic woes, the government has drawn up a series of monetary, financial and labor-oriented measures to woo the electorate. Some of them will run until the end of the year to alleviate the impact of the crisis, but some are timed particularly for the referendum to deter the “no” vote. The bulk of the measures were part of an omnibus law, published in the Official Gazette on Jan. 18.