Who will have upper hand in Trump’s Mideast policy?

In view of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s February visit to Washington and his meeting with US President Donald Trump, the US administration will soon be confronted with conflicting pressures: Israel on the one hand, and the Palestinians, the European Union and Egypt on the other.

According to a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs official who is part of the policy team preparing Netanyahu’s visit, Israel is currently drafting a proposal for Trump and his team, pre-empting any future agreement with the Palestinians. The draft will propose that the new US administration recognize Israel’s future sovereignty in the settlement blocs without defining their scope. Israel also seeks US assurances that it will prevent any diplomatic move internationalizing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution, such as the continuation of the Jan. 15 Paris conferences or any other UN Security Council resolution stipulating the illegality of Israeli West Bank settlements. On the other hand, the relocation of the US Embassy to Jerusalem is not high on the Israeli agenda, out of concern for unrest in the West Bank. Such an agreement by the new administration will enable the Netanyahu government to freely continue its settlement expansion policies, especially within the settlement blocs and the Jerusalem area. Netanyahu will also ask for new sanctions on Iran.

The senior official said that this strategy was commonly elaborated by Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman. He indicated that according to initial contacts between the Israeli Embassy in Washington and the Trump administration, it seems that two camps are emerging within Trump’s foreign and security policy team. On the one side are the officials who were part of the presidential election campaign and are now part of the White House team — people who are clearly leaning toward Israeli right-wing positions, are skeptical of the two-state solution in the foreseeable future and are in favor of Israeli settlement construction within the settlement blocs. On the other side are the secretaries of state and defense — people who are more pragmatic, tend to favor a two-state solution (on the condition that Palestinians take stronger measures against violence and terror) and oppose a move of the embassy to Jerusalem at this point.

The Palestinian Authority leadership is well-aware of Jerusalem’s diplomatic symbiosis with Washington. Hence, it is currently working to create a counterbalance with Egypt, the EU and Russia. Talks between Ramallah and Brussels have already taken place, both before and after Trump’s inauguration, as to how to counter what seems to be a new US-Israeli understanding on settlement policies. And more specifically, on how to curb these tendencies during the Netanyahu visit, which will only strengthen the Israeli government’s annexation ambitions.