The assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov deeply shocked the public and the ruling circles in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin canceled his long-planned annual press conference to bid farewell to the diplomat. Given the recent worsening of Turkish-Russian relations after Turkey downed a Russian jet in November 2015, whoever was behind the murder clearly expected a sharp reaction from Moscow. However, a timely and proper reaction from the Turkish establishment, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in particular, dashed those hopes. Erdogan immediately addressed the nation and called Putin to express his condolences and condemnation of the assassin. That immediate reaction, according to the sources close to the Kremlin, has become an important marker to keep the emotions down. Otherwise — undoubtedly — the incident would have become one more indelible stain on Moscow-Ankara relations.

The results of the investigation into the assassination, which is being carried out by a joint Russian-Turkish commission, are critical. The obvious flaw for all parties involved was the weak protection of the ambassador. The Russian press has reported that the Turkish side opposed increased protection due to the involvement of a Russian special group associated with the security agencies. The weak protection is even more surprising when taking into account that terror attacks have been ripping through major cities across Turkey, with two more deadly blasts rocking Istanbul a couple of weeks ago. Contrary to authorities’ assurances that the situation has been stabilized, Turkey is apparently still suffering from a vulnerability to the growing terrorist threat.

The murder of the ambassador revitalized the debate within Russia about the possibility of cooperation with Turkey in combating terrorism. While the main line remains an attempt to find common ground, governing bodies believe that the murder of the ambassador was intentionally planned for that day, as it preceded the meeting of foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran in Moscow. The terrorist attack, however, failed to derail these talks. Not only did the negotiations take place, but all three parties stressed their determination to fight terrorism together, emphasizing that the future of Syria in many respects depends on their joint actions.

There is an understanding in Moscow that Turkey has been actively engaged in combating terrorism, both domestically and internationally, but is unable to eradicate it for a number of reasons.