Saudi Arabia's post-oil plan enters slippery slope

Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced an ambitious plan last month to offset his country's dependence on oil. The plan, called Vision 2030, foresees Saudi Arabia opening its doors to bigger and bolder ideas — investments in new energy sources, a meaty sovereign wealth fund and reforms tackling high unemployment and poverty within the kingdom.

This month, King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud began the overture, dramatically restructuring the Saudi government by consolidating government ministries and appointing new senior officials. Ali al-Naimi, the highly influential petroleum minister, was replaced with the younger former CEO of the Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco), Khalid al-Falih. Even the name of the ministry changed, from the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources to the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources. Mohammed wants you to know that he means business.

These moves raise questions about the fate of Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's national petroleum and natural gas behemoth based in Dhahran. Saudi Aramco's financials have never been publicly disclosed, but its value has been estimated to be as high as $10 trillion. Mohammed, speaking with Al-Arabiya, noted that the government will "offer a share of less than 5% in the market," easily making it the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history.

Admittedly, the idea of a Saudi Aramco IPO would make many energy investors giddy, but consider the reality — that this is a stake in a state-owned hydrocarbon company of a government that is actively trying to disengage from the hydrocarbon sector. Herein lies the conundrum: What is the motivation behind the proposed IPO, and what benefit would one have in investing? What's the catch, really?