Will Nidaa Tunis' troubles boost Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt?

CAIRO — The resignation of 32 Nidaa Tunis members from their party’s parliamentary bloc in Tunisia on Nov. 9 has observers wondering whether the resignations represent the early stages of the disintegration of Nidaa Tunis and the possible re-emergence of Ennahda and what effect such a scenario might have, if any, on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The resignations stem from a dispute over leadership of the party between the supporters of party General Secretary Mohsen Marzou and those of Hafedh Essebsi, party deputy chair and son of Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi. 

Ennahda had been the most influential party in Tunisia from 2011 to 2014, but Nidaa Tunis won the elections held in October 2014, taking 86 seats. Ennahda, with 67 seats, agreed to being represented in the government by a single minister. The resignations drop the number of Nidaa Tunis parliamentarians to 54, making Ennahda the largest bloc. The next moves are yet to be announced.

Ennahda, led by Rachid Ghannouchi, takes the position that the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi remains the legitimate president of Egypt, brought down by the military. This has raised questions about whether the Nidaa Tunis resignations and a potentially resurgent Ennahda will influence the Brotherhood.

Waheed Abdel Meguid, deputy head of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor, “Such influence is linked to the answers to three questions: Is Ennahda willing to rule? Will the resigning MPs oppose [Prime Minister] Habib Essid’s government? Will the resigning MPs support Ennahda in parliament?” Abdel Meguid then said, “The answer to the three questions is no. All signs indicate that the balance of power will remain unchanged in parliament. Change will, however, occur on the political map, whose features will be revealed following Tunisia’s municipal elections in early 2016.”