After a long absence, US Secretary of State John Kerry returned to Israel Nov. 24, almost against his will. Without good tidings, without an agenda, without a clue about what to do now, he made an appearance as a wave of terror engulfs Israeli streets, as the Palestinian Authority (PA) loses its relevance and President Mahmoud Abbas seems more vulnerable than ever.
Prior to Kerry’s arrival, Ha’aretz published a news item about how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was open to an “attractive package of measures” to strengthen the PA in exchange for US recognition of Israeli construction in the settlement blocs. In essence, it would be a request to resurrect and reaffirm a letter from President George W. Bush to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in April 2004, about a year before the Gaza disengagement. That letter implied American recognition of demographic changes on the ground in the occupied territories. From this, one could deduce that the United States supported including the settlement blocs within Israeli territory under a future peace arrangement. What Netanyahu forgets is that Sharon received the letter from Bush after he had written the president about his intention to leave Gaza. Netanyahu, being Netanyahu, wants to get the goods but is not willing, or able, to pay the price.
A “package of measures” offered by Kerry for the Palestinians about two weeks ago included more cosmetics than surgery. It was reported that Kerry is nonetheless demanding much more than Netanyahu is willing to give, including changing the status of substantial parts of the West Bank from Area C (under Israeli security and civil control) to Area B (under Palestinian civil authority and Israel security). At the moment, there is no Israeli readiness for even this limited deal. Netanyahu is not able to pay the price for merchandise that President Barack Obama probably won’t agree to sell him anyway.
Naftali Bennett’s HaBayit HaYehudi has already announced that if even one strip of territory, or responsibility over a strip of territory, is transferred from Israel to the PA, the governing coalition will fall. Netanyahu only has a majority of one in the Knesset — 61 out of 120 Knesset seats — so he cannot entertain the possibility of even one coalition defector. Even if he were willing to take a chance, it is unlikely he would receive the goods that he demands. Netanyahu is actually unable to respond to the question of whether he will agree to freeze construction outside settlement blocs and in isolated outposts in exchange for recognition of construction in the settlement blocs. Netanyahu’s right-wing government allows him no wiggle room. In its stead, paralysis reigns. Under such circumstances, Kerry is essentially an occasional tourist in Jerusalem and Ramallah, listening to the players pouring out their hearts, and he perhaps pouring his out to them. Nothing substantive can come from this.
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