Last year in Turkey, the most widespread speculation was about the political future of then-President Abdullah Gul. Some speculated on a Putin-Medvedev style of swapping titles with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while some wished to see him run against Erdogan. He was seen and believed to be the only person who could stop Erdogan’s march to absolute power and authoritarianism. The calculation was accurate. Gul was the only one.

But, those expectations did not materialize. Gul not only conveyed that he was either unwilling or incapable of challenging Erdogan despite their apparent differences on major issues, but he left the presidency in what was perceived as a humiliating manner.

Only a day after he had announced his intention to return to active politics in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), of which he was a key founding member, the executive board of the AKP, chaired by Erdogan, called for an extraordinary party congress to convene a day before Gul was to officially step down.

If Gul had been allowed to return to the AKP before the congress elected a new party chairman to replace Erdogan (who had to resign to be elected as the ostensibly nonpartisan president), there was very little doubt that given his stature and reputation, Gul would have taken over as the new leader of the ruling party.