Developments in Iraq have left Turkey facing the prospect of an independent Kurdish state on its eastern border. Such an idea would have been abhorrent for Turkey a mere decade ago for fear that its existence would incite separation among its own restive Kurds. The standard Turkish narrative at the time was that an independent Kurdistan was a Western project aimed at destroying Turkey, an age-old ambition. Even the 2003 US invasion of Iraq was viewed in this context by many. The picture is no longer so black and white.

Today, the tables have turned, and Washington is accusing Ankara of exacerbating divisions in Iraq by developing independent ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over Baghdad’s head, especially in the strategic energy field. Turkey’s official preference is still a unified Iraq and as Cengiz Candar noted, one can deduce from recent remarks by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US Secretary of State John Kerry that the positions of the US and Turkish governments converge in this regard.

There are strong indications, however, that Ankara may be resigning itself to the idea of an independent Kurdish state, as maintaining Iraq’s unity is becoming more difficult after the recent advances made by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham. Recent remarks by government spokesman Huseyin Celik, one of Erdogan’s closest associates in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), reflect this shift.

Celik was quoted on June 27 in the Financial Times as saying that an independent Kurdish state may have been a reason for Turkey to go to war in the past, but no one has the right to say this now. “In Turkey, even the word 'Kurdistan' makes people nervous, but their name is Kurdistan,” he said, adding that if Iraq were to be divided, Turkey would look on the Kurds as brothers. “Unfortunately, the situation in Iraq is not good and it looks like it is going to be divided,” Celik said, blaming Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for bringing matters to this point. He nevertheless indicated that an independent Kurdish state was not Turkey’s “No. 1 choice.”