Turkey’s currency prepares for a fall
After years of efforts to keep its currency valuable, Turkey’s government seems to be shifting to a cheaper lira policy in an attempt to boost exports and reduce the country’s gaping current account deficit.
For years, the Turkish government has stuck to a currency policy that treated the Turkish lira’s value as a matter of national pride. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself explicitly described the lira’s appreciation as a government objective. In ambitious remarks in 2009, he declared: “The Turkish lira will reach such a level that we’ll deal in Turkish lira on international markets. We are taking steps in this direction.” In 2010, he further said: “The depreciation of the Turkish lira is not something I welcome. I believe that a Turkish lira capable of influencing other currencies will serve better the economy.” Ever since, Turkey has sought to maintain the Turkish lira’s dignity.
However, domestic and external factors triggered sharp fluctuations in the last quarter of 2013 through mid-January, plunging the Turkish lira into one of the world’s largest depreciations in that period.
Amid the downturn, Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci attempted a “verbal intervention” as he told reporters on Oct. 31 that the bank “will work for the appreciation of the Turkish lira” and made a bold forecast: “Under our cautious liquidity policy, the prospect of the Turkish lira gaining value is stronger than the prospect of its depreciation.”
But despite Basci’s assurances, the free fall continued. The year-end exchange rate target — 1.92 lira per dollar — collapsed, and the lira closed the year at 2.158 against the greenback.
