Ankara at crossroads on Syria policy
Developments in Syria have confounded the Turkish government’s efforts to depose President Bashar al-Assad and forced a rethink of its policies.
As the Syrian crisis moves into its third year, it is premature to say that President Bashar al-Assad is winning his war, as he claims. It is, nevertheless, clear he is not losing it. He also has enough confidence to stage sham elections while the bloody civil war still rages, with all its supposedly democratic trappings, including candidates who will run against him.
Assad’s intention to run in these elections also indicates he has no plans to disappear from the scene anytime soon, especially since he continues to be backed strongly by Russia and Iran. All of this is bad news for Turkey, where the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has banked on a total defeat for the Assad regime and has also been pushing futilely for a Western-led military intervention in Syria.
Meanwhile, despondency and defeatism appear to be setting in among opposition fighters, including members of the jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra, alleged to be receiving military support from Turkey.
Ankara has, however, given no sign yet that it is about to change tack on Syria, although it is generally agreed among diplomats and analysts that its options have run out. Even the Geneva process, which Turkey supported somewhat begrudgingly at the start, appears to be falling by the wayside because of tensions between the United States and Russia over Crimea.
