How will the fall of Yabrud into the hands of the regime reflect on the course of events in Syria? This is a question raised by all of the concerned parties and observers of the conflict in Syria, where the unrest has been ongoing for three years now. The army’s control of the most important stronghold of its opponents in the region northwest of the capital is bound to have repercussions on the ground, as well as political repercussions on the discussion tables aimed at finding solutions to the crisis.

First, at the military level, any observer of the violent path of the armed conflict can anticipate the series of steps lying in store. The fall of Yabrud is bound to lead to several changes in the balance of power in the geographic scope surrounding what is considered to be the capital of the Syrian Qalamoun region.

The Syrian army’s control over the town opens two lines for the army. The first line heads south, as the regime is expected to complete its control of the last small villages stretching from Yabrud to the south and to the southwest, subsequently to dominate the towns of Rankous and Flita, and then go straight to the south to isolate the besieged town of Zabadani, west of Damascus and close to the Baalbek region of Lebanon. By taking control of Zabadani, the Syrian army will have tightened its grip on the entire border line between Lebanon and Syria. This makes its communication lines that stretch from Damascus to the borders of the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel, safe and complete.

This step will have results that Tel Aviv has no choice but to take into consideration. From Israel's standpoint, this opens roads to Hezbollah’s movement from the Lebanese Bekaa Valley to the occupied Golan Heights through Syrian territory that is entirely controlled by the Syrian regime.