The coming three battles of the Syria war

For the first time since the outbreak of the Syrian events in mid-March 2011, the military developments on the ground have become the focus of attention and follow-up. Today, the results of those developments on the ground will decide the direction of the Syrian crisis.

After the peaceful protests phase came the phase of the militarized opposition in the form of a series of limited and scattered actions that were more symbolic than having an actual effect on the ground. Because of this, no serious observer considered their repercussions despite the apparent belief that the Syrian crisis would continue in various forms.

Then, the Syrian opposition started receiving funding and arms from the outside. This is what turned the Syrian crisis into a bona fide military conflict, which, however, remained governed by external and internal power balances. Despite the intensification of the fighting, which has taken the form of a real civil war, the military factor remained secondary in determining Syria’s fate.

Now, for the first time in almost two years, the military factor seems to have become the one deciding the outcome in Syria and the shape of the solution there. The military factor has put the parties to the conflict in a feverish race between what is happening militarily in the field and what is happening politically behind the desks.