With the “moderation” discourse strengthened during the presidency of recently elected Hassan Rouhani, pragmatism will be enhanced in Iran’s regional policy. This development will weaken the existing “mutual threat” perception between Iran and Saudi Arabia that is rooted primarily in the policies of both countries in response to regional issues. Such a development will also consequently strengthen relations between the two.
Some analysts believe that because of the sectarian Sunni-Shiite divide and the geostrategic goal of Tehran and Riyadh of containing the other’s regional role, strengthening relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will not be an easy task. The reality, however, is that their bilateral relations are not marred by major sectarian or geostrategic differences, per se, but rather differences in these areas created by their reactions to regional events. That is, when the region is in crisis — such as the situation in Iraq following 2003, Syria’s current struggles and developments in Egypt following the Arab Spring — tensions between them have risen. Conversely, during times of relative regional peace, their relations have strengthened, for example, during the late 1990s.
The presence of a foreign actor such as the United States in the region increases the mutual threat perception between Iran and Saudi Arabia. US political and security policies in the region pit these two countries against each other. For example, the United States’ involvement in Iraq sowed the seeds for competition between them in the context of a sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict. The Saudis still hold the United States responsible for setting the stage for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime, resulting in Shiite trends close to Iran taking power and helping prepare for Iran’s so-called strengthened hegemonic role in the region.
One of the main reasons for deteriorating relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is their identical perception of “mutual threat” caused by closeness to the United States. Iran holds the Saudi government responsible for facilitating the political and security presence of the United States in the region, being an active agent in implementing economic sanctions against Iran, especially when it comes to replacing Iran’s oil exports in the international market, and generally cooperating in weakening its regional role.
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