The major powers and Iran will be convening in Kazakhstan at the end of the month [Feb. 26] for what is already being described as yet another “last chance” for negotiations. The truth of the matter is that all of the parties are well aware that the current timetable only hinders any chance of achieving an agreement, even if the Iranians would want that.
Iran’s presidential elections are scheduled for June, and the most striking feature of the current campaign is that it hasn’t started yet. There are plenty of theoretical candidates, but few have actually committed themselves to running. In the background, the regime is exerting enormous pressure so that the events of 2009, and especially the so-called Green Revolution, do not repeat themselves. The reformists of that time, like former Parliament speaker Medhi Karroubi and former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, are under house arrest, and Iran’s economic situation has only deteriorated over the past few years with the collapse of its currency, a decline in oil exports and a sharp rise in prices. All of this is deeply related to the sanctions and, by extension, to the nuclear crisis. In this current situation, the regime is having a very hard time giving any indication that it is willing to compromise, and indications like that are rare even in the best of times.
