Yemen’s Ticking Time Bomb
Eight months after the ouster of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, the streets of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, are quiet. But violence continues to rage elsewhere, writes Danya Greenfield from Yemen. What is glaringly obvious, and widely acknowledged by most Yemenis, is a lack of vision from the president, prime minister and the cabinet.
SANAA, Yemen — Eight months after the ouster of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, the streets of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, are quiet. But violence continues to rage elsewhere and there are serious doubts about whether the country’s leadership can fulfill pledges to restructure the military, draft a new constitution and hold long-overdue parliamentary elections.
Time is not on Yemen’s side given a growing food crisis, 40% unemployment among youth and thousands of people internally displaced by fighting in Abyan, Shabwa, Aden and Sa’ada. When asked if the government could achieve its objectives for the next six months, Abdulkarim Al Iryani, a former prime minister, told me earlier this month when I met him in Sanaa, “If we look into the future and work hard, it can happen.” But wishing for success and even hard work will not be enough without tough political decisions and leadership, both of which are in short supply.
The Gulf Cooperation Council deal that removed Saleh did nothing to shift the structure of elite politics in Yemen and just shuffled the deck among the most powerful groups. President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who claimed his position through a non-competitive election on February 21, is not viewed as a particularly strong leader and was selected because he was the one person both sides could accept.
He has performed better than most observers expected, but that is primarily a reflection of how low expectations were. He has taken some important first steps — replacing several key military commanders and regional governors, undertaking an aggressive and successful campaign against al-Qaeda and standing up to former president Saleh’s continuing efforts to manipulate from the sidelines. But days often pass without any sighting of Hadi, attesting to his low-key approach. Most people I spoke with agreed that if he can oversee this two-year transitional phase without Yemen collapsing into civil war, he will have fulfilled his mandate.
