Talks to Resolve Syrian Conflict Cannot Hinge on Cease-Fire
Nassif Hitti argues that a cease-fire cannot be a precondition for talks to end the Syrian conflict. Talks under the auspices of UN Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi need to start immediately if there is any chance for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.
Syria's multifaceted conflict seems to be locked in a zero-sum game, with warfare ravaging the country.
One issue that brings together an otherwise divided opposition is the sine qua non of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's removal, while the Assad regime is still thinking in terms of soft, limited, well-contained reforms that do not change the regime's authoritarian nature.
A convergence between the two warring parties is that there is as yet no sign of a negotiated solution; military force carries the day. Each party feels time is on its side. Yet a military solution remains out of reach because of the internal balance of power and the differing agendas and involvement of external parties. Unless an agreement is reached among the external supporters and sponsors of both the Syrian government and the rebel forces for an orderly political transition (one that will lead to a regime change through negotiations and gradualism with all necessary guarantees to the parties involved), then the pre-diplomacy will continue. The policies of declarations and counter-declarations among the external actors — as well as the Syrian ones — will continue at the price of more bloodshed and the erosion of the Syrian state itself.
The precondition of a cease-fire as a necessary step before engaging in negotiations, instead of integrating such a cease-fire directly into the negotiation process itself, will not produce any results, as we witnessed from day one of former UN Special Envoy Kofi Annan's mission. Indeed, such an approach will hand the warring parties a veto over a political solution.
