Before Turkey could make good on its threats of a fresh military thrust in Syria, the rebel groups it relies on have gone to war with each other, raising doubts about how capable they are to help Turkey realize its plans for a safe zone along the border.

Despite subsequent mediation efforts, Turkey’s initial inaction in the face of the clashes and the fact that the hostilities play into the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the jihadi group controlling Idlib, have sparked further questioning and speculation. 

After Ankara threatened to seize Kurdish-held Tel Rifaat and Manbij in northern Syria last month, the Syrian National Army (SNA) – a loose alliance of Turkish-backed armed factions – conducted military exercises under Turkish guidance and reinforced frontlines, declaring it is ready for orders to press ahead. Yet, the infighting calls into question how united its members are for a battle.

A row between Ahrar al-Sham and the Sham Front is at the center of the crisis, which erupted into a big confrontation last week, with fellow SNA factions standing by the Sham Front, and the HTS, a designated terrorist group, backing Ahrar al-Sham. The Sham Front attacked Ahrar al-Sham in several locations in al-Bab countryside on June 18, seizing the outposts of the group’s eastern forces, known as Ahrar al-Sham-Eastern Sector, and taking 50 of its members captive. The clashes quickly spread to Jarablus. The Sham Front tried to expel Ahrar al-Sham militants and their families from Afrin as well. All three areas are in regions controlled by Turkey and its allies.