The Takeaway: Iran nuclear diplomacy shows faint pulse at UN
Signs of life at an extraordinary meeting of senior Middle East officials; also, updates from our correspondents on Israel, West Bank, UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Iraq … and more … all in about 1,400 words!
Hot Take: Five takes on Biden’s UN speech and the Iran nuclear deal
- Washington doubles down on diplomacy … In a speech to the UN General Assembly on Sept. 21, President Joe Biden drew a pointed contrast to his predecessor and said the United States will shift to "relentless diplomacy" to deal with the world’s problems. He said the United States will turn its "focus to the priorities and regions of the world, like the Indo-Pacific, that are most consequential today and tomorrow." This is a return to the so-called Asia pivot, in the works since the presidency of Barack Obama.
- … And the Iran deal remains a priority. The only specific reference to the Middle East came with regard to Iran. Biden said, "We are working with the P5+1 to engage Iran diplomatically and seek a return to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran nuclear deal). We’re prepared to return to full compliance if Iran does the same."
- Iran is ready to talk, too … Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in a meeting with the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Joseph Borrell, said Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, is pragmatic and ready to resume talks. Amir-Abdollahian is meeting with other signatories to the JCPOA in advance of the next round of talks, which is expected in a few weeks.
- … but not so fast. In his address to the UN on Sept. 22, Raisi delivered an old-school anti-US rant, including saying, "We do not trust the promises of America.” The Biden administration is understandably skeptical about Iran’s intentions. Key questions: Will Iran want something different from the JCPOA, and has Iran’s expansion of its civil nuclear program outside of JCPOA constraints already crossed a threshold of no return? Vivian Salama has the scoop in our podcast this week. Israel has also been talking with the United States about a "Plan B" for Iran if talks fail.
- Meanwhile, Iraq pursues its own "relentless diplomacy" involving Iran, Gulf. If the United States is pivoting to Asia, regional countries are going to have to take the lead themselves. And it’s already happening. Iraq’s foreign minister hosted a meeting of top diplomats from Iran, Saudi Arabia and the European Union as a follow-up to the historic regional summit in Baghdad last month hosted by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. The topic for both meetings was support for Iraq but also support for regional diplomacy, and the presence of the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia provides hope for a needed diplomatic boost to end the Yemen war and an overall decrease in Gulf tensions.
Final Take: Our take for the past few months has been that Raisi has compelling economic, political and diplomatic incentives to re-enter nuclear negotiations and get sanctions lifted. This week, Bijan Khajehpour explains why Iran’s joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) won’t provide the economic windfall Tehran is hyping. The key to Iran’s economic future remains sanctions relief, and the Biden administration alone holds that card.
From our regional correspondents:
