Israel has gone through a roller coaster of four consecutive elections within the past two years only to find itself back at the same spot. Whereas supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tied with his opponents in the April 2019 voting, each garnering the equivalent of 60 Knesset seats, results of the March 23 elections (still incomplete) give the pro-Netanyahu bloc of parties 59 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc 61.

This does not augur well for either side. As of now, Netanyahu lacks the majority he needs to form a government, while his opponents will have to defy all logic and perform political acrobatics in order to square the circle and form a so-called government of change. On the one hand, Netanyahu has been blocked for a fourth time from achieving the coveted 61-seat Knesset majority, on the other hand he is still prime minister as he has been for 15 (nonconsecutive) years. This bizarre state of play is made possible by the rules of Israel’s political game, which is no consolation to anyone except Netanyahu himself.

Naftali Bennett, chair of the right-wing Yamina party, was predicted to be the hero of the day and provide the swing votes needed for one of the sides to win. That was the case on and off throughout the long night of vote counting, after all three television exit polls showed the Ra’am Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas failing to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. When the sun set in the evening hours of March 23, Abbas was out of the game. When it rose the next morning, the vote tally positioned his party well above the threshold, possibly with five Knesset seats, reducing the pro-Netanyahu bloc from its 61-seat advantage to 59.

With only seven seats, far lower than his recent poll numbers, Bennett has lost his bargaining power vis-a-vis Netanyahu because even if he joins the pro-Netanyahu coalition, he would only boost it to 59 seats, not the majority it needs. With most votes counted, Abbas, whom pollsters and pundits had all but buried, has emerged as the linchpin, announcing his availability to the highest bidder.