Russian President Vladimir Putin received his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, in Moscow on Sept. 13 — the first meeting between the two in Russia since 2018. During their talks, Assad referenced former negotiations in Sochi and Nur-Sultan aimed at ending the conflict, yet noted “the political processes which we used to carry out stopped approximately three years ago.” In turn, the Syrian state news agency SANA reported that the leaders of the two countries discussed cooperation in "combating terrorism and completing the liberation of lands which are still under the control of terrorist organizations.”

The meeting was primarily about the Idlib de-escalation zone, which is under the control of the Turkish military, as well as the terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army (SNA), representing the so-called moderate opposition. The SNA also controls zones named after various Turkish operations in northern Syria, including operations Olive Branch, Shield of the Euphrates and Peace Spring.

Turkish troops, which were brought into Idlib in response to an offensive by the Syrian army in February-March 2020, have demonstrated that they are capable of inflicting heavy losses. At present, Ankara has more than seven dozen military bases and strongholds in this Syrian region, staffed by 7,000-15,000 servicemen with tanks, artillery and air defense systems, including the medium-range Improved Hawk system. As the Turkish leadership has not reconsidered withdrawing from Idlib, the chances of returning the region to Damascus' control remain slim.

The withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and Afghanistan probably raises hopes among the Assad regime that Washington will finally decide to leave Syria, leaving its Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) partners to fend for themselves, as happened in Afghanistan. In such a scenario, they and the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES) affiliated with them would face a direct attack both from the government forces, supported by Russia, and from the opposition SNA, supported by Turkey.