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A $12.5 billion question: Why did Erdogan unshelve his ‘crazy project’?

By reviving a controversial waterway project, Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to regain control over Istanbul — which he lost in last year’s polls — test whether the project could serve him well in an early election attempt, and eventually gratify his supporters by creating rent.
Demonstrators shout slogans during a prototest against a massive canal project in Istanbul, Turkey, December 27, 2019. REUTERS/Huseyin Aldemir - RC2Q3E9MEY9N
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At a gathering in Belgrade in October 2017, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had for the first time given a date for his “dream project” — an artificial waterway in Istanbul — saying groundbreaking would begin the following year. He had to postpone his dream, however, as the abrupt slump of the Turkish lira in the second half of 2018 fueled crisis and stagnation in the Turkish economy. With the currency losing 30% of its value against the dollar, the Canal Istanbul project went absent from Erdogan’s top political agenda — up until December 2019.

In a speech in the presidential palace Dec. 12, Erdogan propelled the issue back to the country’s agenda, vowing to go ahead with the planned waterway, which would connect the Black and Marmara seas, running to the west of the Bosporus on Istanbul’s European side. “God willing, we will kick off Canal Istanbul by inviting bids in the soonest time possible. … We cannot shelve this project, which will make Turkey grow and strengthen its hand strategically,” he said. Furthermore, he declared, the project would have a political aspect. “I am not using it now, but when the time comes, we’ll be using that as well. God willing, Canal Istanbul will be a big success internationally with that political aspect, too,” he said.

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