Syrian government forces, backed by Russia, retook Maaret al-Numan, a strategic town in Idlib province, and surrounding villages this week. Maaret al-Numan is a key node for the M5 highway linking Damascus with Aleppo, a long-sought Syrian military objective in the war.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Syrian and Russian victory seems to come with a cost. His close ally and friend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has publicly questioned Russian commitments to their deconfliction and cease-fire agreements in Syria; the latest cease-fire began Jan. 12. 

Erdogan said this week that “unfortunately, Russia hasn't abided by either the Astana or the Sochi agreements,” referring to deconfliction and cease-fire agreements involving the so-called Astana group — Russia, Turkey and Iran. “We have waited until now, but from this point, we are going to take our own actions. This is not a threat but our expectation is that Russia will give the regime the necessary warning.” He declared the Astana process “moribund.”

Turkey backs some of the opposition groups in Idlib province, including those in and around Maaret al-Numan, and has Turkish troops stationed at outposts in the region. Ankara fears an influx of tens of thousands of refugees, or even much more, and has closed its border with Idlib.