The so-called Islamic State (IS) suffered two strong lead uppercuts in Syria in late October. One was the death of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US raid on a compound in the village of Barisha in northern Idlib, just 5 miles from the Turkish border. The other was the killing of IS spokesman and possible Baghdadi successor Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir in a drone strike on an oil tanker truck in which he was being smuggled across northern Syria near Jarablus, a border town controlled by the Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army. Will those two devastating punches knock IS down? The short answer to this hard question is “absolutely not.” Here is why.
Although IS has lost its territorial domination in Syria and Iraq, it has grown into an international “brand” with extensive global outreach. The group remains an effective war machine. After losing its last stronghold in Baghouz, Syria, in late March, the group went underground, managing to survive as an effective insurgency. Since March, IS has claimed more than 550 terrorist attacks in Syria, mostly in Deir ez-Zor, and around 800 terrorist attacks in Iraq, mostly in Diyala, Kirkuk and Ninevah provinces.
