The latest appointments and changes in the top echelons of Syria’s military and security institutions have been viewed in the region as the result of Russian military pressure on Damascus. It's likely that Moscow does indeed seek to transform Syria's security institutions and to diminish Iranian influence in the country. However, the actual role of Russia should not be overestimated. Such staff-related changes are frequently due to the Syrian regime’s efforts to redistribute authority and, possibly, to receive benefits from foreign actors amid controversies between Damascus' allies.

The latest dramatic change took place July 7, though it has not been confirmed by pro-Bashar al-Assad media outlets. One of Assad's confidants, Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk, a Sunni and the head of the National Security Bureau, was appointed vice president for security affairs. Another influential official, Maj. Gen. Jamil Hassan, an Alawi and the head of the Air Force Intelligence Directorate, resigned.

Both men are on the US sanctions list. Moreover, both consider any dissent against the regime unacceptable. However, Mamlouk’s situation is slightly different. According to numerous sources, in spite of sanctions, Mamlouk has repeatedly traveled abroad for negotiations, to Europe, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt and Turkey. Furthermore, in June 2018, he was involved in a dialogue with US intelligence. Mamlouk has earned a reputation for being able to maneuver between various centers of powers, though his alleged recent appointment may be interpreted in different ways.

On the one hand, Assad has an opportunity to appoint the second vice president and return to the pre-war situation, when current Vice President Najah al-Attar, 86, was accompanied by politician Farouk al-Sharaa, who keeps a low profile. On the other hand, Mamlouk’s appointment has been discussed for a while. Here, the principal issue is Mamlouk's ability to maintain his previous level of authority in the new office, which does not possess an extensive administrative structure.