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Russia, Turkey continue tug of war over Idlib despite the agreements

As the first deadlines of the Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib draw near, the two countries each seek to push their own agenda while avoiding large-scale conflict.
A Syrian youth waves an opposition flag during a demonstration against the Syrian government in the rebel-held town of Hazzanu, about 20 kilometres northwest of the city of Idlib, on September 21, 2018. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)        (Photo credit should read AAREF WATAD/AFP/Getty Images)
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Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached several agreements in Sochi Sept. 17 to stabilize the situation in Idlib, thus reducing the risk of a full-fledged assault on this opposition stronghold. But those agreements did not exclude the possibility of an assault in the near future. The Sochi memorandum outlined, in general, the actions each side should undertake to avoid escalation. During the consultations that followed the Russian-Turkish summit, representatives of both countries tried to propose amendments to the agreement and to enforce their own vision of specific points.

However, at this stage, Moscow and Ankara have found common ground on several points of the Sochi agreements — something that Putin has recently emphasized. On Oct. 3, during a meeting with Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, Putin claimed it was very likely that large-scale fighting in Syria could be avoided. Putin said the Russian side “acts in solidarity with our Turkish partners, who fulfill their part of obligations.”

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