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Turkey’s spectacular growth has darker side

Turkey may have achieved an impressive 5.1% economic growth in the first half of the year, but the risks are still there with myriad problems accumulating on the other side of the coin.
Turkey's Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci makes a speech in Cologne, Germany, March 5, 2017. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay - LR1ED351J96QJ
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Turkey’s economy grew 5.1% in the second quarter, as many had expected, with the rate for the first half of the year hitting 5.1% as well. Ankara is now on course to easily achieve, and even overshoot, its target of 4.4% for 2017. This leaves the International Monetary Fund’s 2.5% forecast in the beginning of the year far off the mark.

The growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be even higher, perhaps over 10%, given the low-base effect of the same period last year, when the Turkish economy contracted 0.8% amid the clamor of the July 15 coup attempt. Even if the pace slows down in the fourth quarter, the annual figure is likely to still be in the 5-6% range.

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