January in Lebanon will be unusually hot, as a result of three imminent events that might transform it into the most heated political month ever, or maybe even herald the start of a frenzied year on more than one front.
The first such event is an internal constitutional one, as the country enters the countdown period for the formation of a new government. This comes more than nine months after the resignation of the previous one led by former Prime Minister Najib Mikati. The prevailing political atmosphere points to President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam leaning toward announcing a cabinet makeup in January; an eventuality believed driven by constitutional deadlines and upcoming events. For the new government has, according to the constitution, only 30 days to secure a parliamentary vote of confidence, otherwise, it too will be considered resigned. In other words, if said cabinet did manage to see the light by the end of this month, it would not assume its full responsibilities until the beginning of March. On the other hand, the period defined by the Constitution to elect a new president begins on March 25. Therefore, any delay to this schedule would engender further complications and threaten to lead to even more harmful political and constitutional repercussions.
