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The Logic of Russia’s Support for Assad Regime

Protesters burn Chinese and Russian flags during a protest organized by Sunni Islamists group at Sidon, southern Lebanon, against the vetoing by Russia and China of a U.N. resolution that backed an Arab plan calling on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to quit, and to express solidarity with Syria's anti-government protesters, February 10, 2012. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho  (LEBANON - Tags: POLITICS CIVIL UNREST)

Russia and China have vetoed a UN Security Council resolution seeking to induce Syria’s Assad regime to stop killing its own citizens. Moscow has been particularly vociferous about preventing “external interference” in Syria or of even supporting the call for Bashar al-Assad to cede power to his vice president (as has occurred—at least officially—in Yemen). Chinese statements have been more measured, and it is doubtful that Beijing would have voted against the resolution if Moscow had even abstained on it.

Why, then, is Russia in particular so adamant about protecting the Assad regime? Many observers—especially Russian ones—note that Moscow felt betrayed by what happened in Libya last year. After abstaining (along with China) on the Security Council resolution calling for a no-fly zone over Libya, the US and NATO actively supported the Libyan opposition, which eventually overthrew the Qaddafi regime and formed a new government. Moscow fears that allowing the passage of a similar resolution against Syria would lead to a similar NATO intervention with similar results. Moscow would then lose its closest ally in the Middle East, along with access to naval facilities at Tartus, a close arms relationship, and investments in the petroleum and other sectors of the Syrian economy.

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