The Middle East's Dangerous Triangle
Nassif Hitti writes that the Middle East is trapped in a triangle of tension among three major crises.
The current regional and international politics of a tumultuous Middle East are already shaped, yet still taking shape through competition, cooperation and confrontation among key players in the region's three major crises — all of which carry degrees of complexity, danger and tension as well as of repercussions, if not settled properly.
The Palestinian issue, the Syrian conflict and Iran's regional and nuclear ambitions share one common feature: They remain stalemated after partial and partisan, rather than comprehensive, attempts at resolution. The failure stems from the absence of a consensus among the main influential figures. Although each crisis has its own dynamics, history, causes and conflict parameters, they have relations of mutual influence among each other.
If the stalemate gives way to an explosion in one of the three crises, then that explosion will produce a reshuffling of the cards in the other two. The outcome of which will remain to be determined. An explosion of the Syria crisis will create a regional civil war in the country increasing the chances of a Western-Iranian confrontation.
A Western-Iranian confrontation or an Israeli-Iranian one will lift a lot of pressure from the Syrian regime by actively redrawing the strategic lines of confrontation or the military front lines from the waters of the gulf to the Mediterranean sea.
