Why China stands to gain from Trump's midterm drubbing

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WASHINGTON – Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress, with Democrats securing at least 54 Senate seats and a projected House majority of between 251 and 268 seats. Upsets in Texas, Kansas and South Carolina underscored the historic nature of the election.

When the new Congress convenes in January, as Elizabeth Hagedorn reports, Trump will confront an opposition empowered to investigate his administration, challenge spending priorities and obstruct his legislative agenda. Much of it will center on the Middle East, the US-Iran war, and business ties and deals with Gulf monarchies forged over the past two years by Trump officials or people in the president’s orbit.

For Beijing, that creates an opportunity. A president facing domestic paralysis may become more invested in securing an agreement abroad, particularly one he can sell as relief for US consumers. Chinese negotiators could conclude that Trump needs a deal more urgently than they do.

Iran’s political price

The clearest opening concerns Iran. Vice President JD Vance blamed the war for the Republican defeat, while Trump acknowledged that its impact on energy prices contributed to the losses, even as he defended the decision to fight.

The election was not an endorsement of China’s foreign policy, but it gives Beijing political ammunition to argue that negotiations, rather than renewed military escalation, offer the better route out of the conflict and to defend its sustained support for Tehran. Beijing can now portray its diplomatic backing, purchases of Iranian oil and provision of dual-use technology as having helped Iran withstand a war that has exacted a political price from the US president.

More room in the Gulf

China was already expanding its regional diplomacy before the election. This week, as Beatrice Farhat reported, Xi hosted Oman’s sultan, while Foreign Minister Wang Yi held separate talks with senior Iranian and Saudi officials. Beijing also announced plans to dispatch its Middle East envoy to those three countries.

A politically bruised Trump could make that diplomatic pitch more compelling. Beijing can present itself as focused on negotiations, restored shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and economic stability, while Washington wrestles with a stubborn Iranian negotiating team.

A humbled Trump

Trump will arrive at his meeting with Xi politically weakened at home and under pressure to deliver economic relief. Unlike in previous elections, when he invoked allegations of fraud to challenge the results, Trump was quick to acknowledge the outcome. “I don’t want to be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything,” he told Politico.

The results will make him even more inclined to work with China and avoid an economic breakdown. The trade truce expires in January. Extending it would help avert another round of tariffs, retaliatory measures and uncertainty for businesses. Lowering tariffs could ease import costs, but securing a durable agreement requires China’s cooperation and gives Beijing an opening to demand concessions in return.

That is Xi’s leverage: Trump needs a deal he can sell at home, while China can bargain over its price. 

But a weaker Trump does not mean a more accommodating US Congress. The incoming majority could press the White House to release stalled arms sales to Taiwan, intensify scrutiny of Chinese investments and challenge Beijing over human rights. China may gain leverage with the president only to face a more confrontational Congress on issues it considers especially sensitive.