What Israel's election could mean for Palestinians in Gaza, West Bank

The upcoming Israeli elections could bring a changing of the guard in Israel, which experts say could usher in policy shifts  affecting Palestinians across Gaza, the West Bank and within Israel, from settler violence and Palestinian prisoners to crime in Arab communities and the release of withheld tax revenues.

On Sept. 26, five Israeli opposition leaders signed a pact pledging to work together to form a government after elections, if Netanyahu's tenure comes to an end.

The bloc consists of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s Together alliance, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and Yair Golan’s Democrats. Eisenkot is considered a likely choice to lead the government if the coalition prevails.

A Netanyahu defeat could bring some changes to the lives of the 3.4 million Palestinians on the West Bank, 2.1 million in Gaza and 1.9 million in Israel, possibly delivering policy shifts on settler violence, economic pressures and the fight against crime.

West Bank settlement expansion, violence

Although support for Israeli settlements spans much of Israel’s political spectrum, the candidates differ on the extent of expansion as well as the future of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the governing body that administers civilian affairs in parts of the West Bank and coordinates security with Israel.

Eisenkot supports settlements he considers legal but opposes annexation of the entire West Bank and has criticized the Netanyahu government’s E1 settlement plan. He also opposes dismantling the PA. Bennett supports settlement expansion and annexation of Area C, about 60% of the West Bank, while leaving Palestinians with limited autonomy in Areas A and B. He has not explicitly called for dismantling the PA, but has in the past called for cutting ties with it and withholding tax revenues from it in accordance with its political moves. 

Lieberman has taken a harder line, backing settlements, including the controversial E1 settlement plan, and calling for the PA to be dismantled. 

Another distinction between the opposition and the Netanyahu government on West Bank policy concerns settler violence. Eisenkot has called for a hard-line approach against settler violence, while Golan has pledged to cut funding for illegal outposts.

“If the Eisenkot coalition manages to pull it off,” said Khaled Elgindy, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, “we're not going to see a reversal of what was started in Gaza and in the West Bank, but we will see a flattening of the trend line.”

Elgindy added that an Eisenkot-led government might be more responsive to international pressure and freeze the E1 settlement plan, which envisions thousands of homes east of Jerusalem that threaten the contiguity of a future Palestinian state.

Hady Amr, a former senior US State Department official who worked on Israeli and Palestinian affairs, told Al-Monitor, “I think the election could make a significant difference to the tens of thousands of Palestinian Authority teachers and healthcare workers who have not been paid because Israel has been seizing Palestinian Authority tax revenues.” 

Another far-right government could deepen the PA’s financial crisis, leaving it increasingly unable to meet payroll, pay suppliers and sustain public services. The authority has relied on borrowing and accumulating arrears to cover its shortfall, but Elgindy said another four years under Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition could leave the PA “completely broke” and jeopardize its ability to survive.

Postwar Gaza

Rebuilding Gaza, devastated by two years of war between Israel and Hamas that have killed nearly 75,000 Palestinians, is estimated to cost $71.4 billion over the next decade, according to the United Nations, European Union and World Bank. The only current framework for reconstruction is US President Donald Trump’s postwar plan.

Netanyahu has resisted moving forward with Trump’s plan, which calls for further Israeli withdrawals in exchange for Hamas’s disarmament. Far-right members of Netanyahu's governing coalition have advocated resettling Gaza, contradicting the Trump plan’s vision for the Palestinian enclave.

Eisenkot backs the US framework, while Bennett wants Israeli forces to remain in their current positions until Hamas is disarmed. Lieberman has advocated transferring governance to an international body and has suggested relocating one million Palestinians to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. Golan supports PA involvement in Gaza's governance, with regional and international partners helping oversee reconstruction.

A change in government could give Trump’s plan a chance of moving forward. Elgindy said he does not see how it could survive if Netanyahu remains in power. For now, he added, the plan is “the only thing that could allow for some immediate recovery, some relief in Gaza.”

Palestinians in Israel

For Palestinian citizens of Israel, some 20% of the population, this year's elections could reshape the government’s response to skyrocketing crime and longstanding discrimination. A 2023 US State Department report cited “persistent institutional and societal discrimination” against Arab citizens of Israel. In 2025, the Arab community saw a record 252 murders. 

Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman have all called for tougher action against organized crime, while Golan has proposed a broader program, including a dedicated task force to combat crime and a department focused on education, welfare and rehabilitation in Arab communities.

Amr said that a new government that sidelines ultra-right wing members of the Knesset could lead to “a crackdown on the rise of crime and mafia violence that have severely afflicted the two million Palestinian citizens of Israel.” 

There could also be changes for the more than 9,000 Palestinians currently held in Israeli prisons, which are currently overseen by far right National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, who has championed harsh prison conditions and pushed successful legislation making death the default sentence for West Bank Palestinians convicted in Israeli military courts of fatal attacks classified as terrorism.

In reference to Ben-Gvir, Elgindy said, “If he's not in control anymore, conditions for the prisoners won’t become wonderful, but they will become less horrific.” 

Prospects for statehood

Since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, Palestinian statehood has shifted to the margins of mainstream Israeli debate. Even among opposition to Netanyahu, support for a two-state solution is largely absent.

In August, Eisenkot called anyone thinking about a two-state solution “delusional.” Bennett and Lieberman similarly oppose statehood. Golan is the exception among the opposition bloc leaders, supporting a two-state solution involving a demilitarized Palestinian state and Israeli security control over the Jordan Valley.

Elgindy said, “I don't think the two-state solution is a realistic prospect any longer under any government . . . The question now is how do we preserve the ability of Palestinians to remain on their own land? It's about ensuring the continued existence of Palestinians.”