'Duplicitous' or neutral? How Oman incurred Trump's wrath

When US President Donald Trump first announced a deal with Iran, he named nearly half-a-dozen countries that approved the agreement, including all the Gulf states save one: former mediator Oman.

The quiet sultanate that shares the key Strait of Hormuz with Iran was, for over a decade, the go-to broker for US-Iran talks and helped facilitate the 2015 nuclear deal that Trump exited eight years ago.

Now, Oman -- dubbed the "Switzerland of the Middle East" in a nod to its neutrality -- has been threatened by Trump and sidelined as a mediator for the deal signed this week as Washington accuses Muscat of being too close to Iran.

"Oman's model has always been triangulation, where they keep open channels to Tehran, Washington, and the Gulf simultaneously," said analyst H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute.

"What shifted is Washington's tolerance for an interlocutor who won't sever the Iran channel, and engaged in diplomacy in a publicly aggressive fashion that matched Washington's posture."

The move comes even as other Gulf states, unconvinced by the US security umbrella, have engaged with Iran, and despite Oman's rise as a regional logistics hub bypassing the strait.

- A history of mediation -

Oman was the first Gulf country to welcome an Israeli leader in 1994, but it has also hosted talks between Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which backs the government.

Muscat served as the back channel for talks between the United States and Iran in the lead-up to the 2015 nuclear deal and mediated several rounds of talks during Trump's second term.

But those negotiations were interrupted twice last June and in February by the strikes on Iran that started the latest war.

Striking a neutral tone came at a cost for Oman as the United States demanded unwavering support from its Gulf allies, pummelled by Iranian strikes.

At the height of the war, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq congratulated Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment as supreme leader.

The Sultanate has also shied away from naming Iran when condemning strikes on its territory and the region, with top diplomat Badr Albusaidi urging Washington to stop attacking Iran, insisting that "this is not your war".

- 'Employees of Iran' -

In the following weeks, Pakistan, backed by Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, took the lead on negotiations weeks into the war. Qatar has also played an increasingly important role.

Last month, Trump threatened that if Oman tried to control the Strait of Hormuz alongside Iran he would "blow them up", while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned he would sanction Muscat if it helped impose a tolling system in the waterway.

He later said the Omani ambassador assured him "there were no plans for tolling".

And as part of the deal, Oman and Iran will define, alongside other Gulf states, "the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz" in line with international law.

But Washington made it clear that Oman was not its preferred mediator.

A senior Trump administration official told reporters on Monday in a call that Washington "threw them out" of the process because "we felt they were very duplicitous, almost like employees of the Iranians".

"I don't think Oman has 'sided' with either country," said Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat who was a member of the team negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal.

He said Muscat had not fallen out of favour with Washington, despite the rebukes.

"The current US administration is essentially transactional: if Oman can be of benefit, it will interact with Oman," he said.

- 'War accelerated hedging' -

While Oman's neutrality may have exposed it to US wrath, it may have shielded the Sultanate from the regular attacks its neighbours faced.

Oman was the least affected Gulf country during the war, with attacks few and far in-between, while its airport became a hub for escapees while others in the region faced regular -- and sometimes deadly -- strikes.

While Muscat's cautious stance stood in sharp contrast with Gulf neighbours, who have lambasted Iran for its attacks, many have since pursued dialogue with Tehran.

Much of Oman's coastline lies outside the Gulf, turning the ports of Sohar and Duqm into strategic hubs as exporters search for alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.

"The war accelerated existing hedging," Hellyer said of the Gulf re-engaging with Iran while managing their US ties.

"Gulf states are converging on Oman's posture because the incentive, which is an unreliable American guarantee, now applies broadly."

Much of Oman's coastline lies outside the Gulf, turning the ports of Sohar and Duqm into strategic hubs as exporters search for alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.