What options as UN force's Lebanon exit looms?

Lebanon is seeking an international force to replace a decades-long United Nations peacekeeping mission whose mandate ends this year following US and Israeli pressure, even as the latest Israel-Hezbollah war continues.

Concerns over the possible exit of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) with no alternative come with Israeli troops occupying south Lebanon's border areas, and as Israel and Lebanon hold direct negotiations seeking to end decades of hostilities.

The force has been a buffer between Lebanon and Israel since 1978, but its presence has not been enough to prevent repeated outbreaks of conflict.

With the UN secretary-general set to submit a report to the Security Council by June 1, AFP looks at some potential scenarios.

- What does Lebanon want? -

UNIFIL currently counts some 7,500 peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries. They are deployed in south Lebanon near the Blue Line, the 120-kilometre (75-mile) de facto border between Lebanon and Israel, where they are now in the middle of the Israel-Hezbollah war.

A Lebanese official requesting anonymity told AFP that after UNIFIL's mandate ends on December 31, Lebanon's preference is to still have "an international presence under the umbrella of the UN".

A second Lebanese official said it was "crucial" to have some kind of UN force resembling UNIFIL, "maybe with some downsizing or mission changes".

"How can we talk about Resolution 1701 without UNIFIL?" they added, also requesting anonymity.

UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and bolstered UNIFIL's role, tasking peacekeepers with monitoring the ceasefire between the two sides.

The resolution also formed the basis of a 2024 truce that halted a previous round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, under which the Lebanese government has been seeking to disarm the Iran-backed group.

- UN options? -

Several sources said discussions were ongoing ahead of the UN report, but that options could include a downsized UN mission.

Another might see the mission of the UN Truce Supervision Organization extended.

UNTSO is a regional peacekeeping operation set up in 1948 that also has a small, unarmed contingent in Lebanon.

Authorities are waiting to see the UN report before making an official request for international assistance, both Lebanese officials said.

But Israel and the United States, which last year pushed to end the UNIFIL mandate at the Security Council, could try to block any new UN proposal.

The second Lebanese official said that even if Washington opposed a new UN formula, "we hope that at least they will not veto it".

Some Security Council members including China are however in favour of keeping a UN force on the ground.

Cash could be another obstacle, with UN-led peacekeeping operations weakened by a funding crisis that has already seen UNIFIL cut its numbers in recent months.

- Non-UN options? -

If no new UN arrangement is reached, several sources said alternative proposals could include a European Union force or bilateral military arrangements between Lebanon and individual countries.

They said Italy, France and Spain, which all have major troop contingents in UNIFIL, have expressed willingness to keep forces in Lebanon.

In February, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asked Germany -- which heads UNIFIL's maritime taskforce -- to play a "key role" after UNIFIL's departure.

But myriad bilateral military accords could be unwieldy.

"What makes increasing sense to everyone is going back to a UN framework," a Western diplomatic source told AFP on condition of anonymity.

- Vacuum? -

A worst-case scenario for Lebanon would be a UNIFIL pullout without any alternative.

The diplomatic source said such a vacuum would be "a very dangerous situation for Israel and Lebanon".

"There wouldn't be any international witness to make sure that whatever is eventually agreed upon (in Israel-Lebanon negotiations) is well-implemented on the ground," they said.

A UN source noted that there would also be "a lot more competition for the narrative" with no international presence.

"UNIFIL monitors and reports impartially -- there isn't currently another actor or organisation on the ground that can do that," the source said on condition of anonymity.