More than 1 million people in Lebanon are expected to face acute food insecurity in the coming months, according to a new global hunger assessment released on April 29 — a stark illustration of how war-driven upheaval is rippling through vulnerable economies across the Middle East.

The warning is tied directly to fallout from Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon. But it also offers an early signal of a broader risk now emerging across the Middle East and North Africa as the US-Israel-Iran war raises the prospect of a widening food security squeeze far beyond the Gulf region. 

Global attention has largely focused on disrupted fertilizer flows and the shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for both energy and agricultural inputs. Roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade typically transits the waterway, with war forcing Gulf producers to curtail exports as they grapple with their own food import challenges. 

Beneath those headlines, a more complex and potentially destabilizing dynamic is taking shape across MENA, where food security pressures have long loomed large and famine in Gaza was a major story line just last year. Now, the risk is that today’s supply chain shock will feed into tomorrow’s grain markets — with profound implications in a region that has the world's largest concentration of wheat importers, who are only a few years removed from food security strains fueled by the Ukraine war.