Israel sees chance of US-Iran deal as almost 'non-existent,' readies for war

TEL AVIV — With the April 22 deadline for the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran approaching and scant sign of a breakthrough, senior Israeli sources say the military is preparing for a possible resumption of fighting.

"In our assessment, the chances that the United States and Iran will bridge their differences and reach an agreement, or even a framework agreement, are very low to nonexistent," a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

Trump’s options

Though he has sent mixed messages, US President Donald Trump told Bloomberg on Tuesday that he is “highly unlikely” to extend the truce past Wednesday if no deal is reached and told CNBC on Tuesday, "I expect to be bombing." 

Trump has several options if the truce is not extended, an Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. 

They include following through on threats to strike Iran’s infrastructure and expanding the naval blockade by bringing in more American vessels to make sure no Iranian ship manages to get through or by blocking Iranian ships in other seas. Iran’s economy relies heavily on revenue from oil exports, particularly sales to China. A full blockade could significantly disrupt those exports as well as restrict the import of essential goods. Such pressure could deepen economic hardship for ordinary Iranians, potentially pushing more people toward poverty and, some analysts suggest, increasing the likelihood of mass protests.

In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump claimed the current blockade on Iranian-linked ships and ports is “destroying Iran” by costing the regime $500 million a day. The Wall Street Journal estimated the blockade to cost Iran approximately $435 million a day in combined economic damages. 

Trump could also unilaterally extend the ceasefire to allow time for negotiations while retaining the option of violating it later without warning, the source said, adding, “Or he could decide to do nothing. We’re ready for any of these scenarios.”

Israel is preparing most intensively for the resumption of fighting. "The plans are detailed, ready and approved," a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "This would mark a significant escalation in the use of force against Iran, both by us and the Americans.”

The source noted that Israel and the United States had agreed on a date for a major escalation in Iran prior to the announcement of a ceasefire on April 7. “The plans were put on hold, and who knows if and when they’ll be activated,” he said, explaining that the suspended strategy included strikes on energy and other critical infrastructure. “These blows would set Iran back by decades and make it impossible for the regime to run the country,” he said.

According to other security sources, the plans also include the possible deployment of American or Israeli special forces inside Iran. However, US and Israeli officials have expressed doubts about the operation’s feasibility.

Trump's shifting moods

Trump’s contradictory messages have become a source of constant confusion for Israeli diplomats. An Israeli diplomat commented to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “While he told Fox News on Monday that a deal with Iran was imminent, he has also been quoted as saying he has no intention of extending the ceasefire. Now we're supposed to deal with all of this and try to guess what's going to happen.”

Previously, such mixed messaging would have prompted Israel to ramp up coordination with Washington as well as intelligence gathering to decipher Trump’s intentions. Now, however, Israeli security and intelligence sources increasingly assess that his statements may not be based on a concrete plan, but reflect shifting moods and negotiating tactics toward Iran.

"We are listening to the president very attentively, but taking it with a pinch of salt," the Israeli diplomat said. 

Still, Israeli officials point to Trump’s consistency on the uranium issue as a sign of his intended end goal as he continues to reject Iranian nuclear enrichment and insists on the removal of the regime’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.

“We must not forget that beyond the 450 kilograms [992 pounds] of uranium enriched to an almost military level,” said the Israeli security source, “they also have many hundreds of kilograms of lower-enriched uranium. This uranium is also very dangerous and can be upgraded to a military level with minimal effort."

Leadership concerns

For Israel, the uncertainty surrounding the potential next round of talks and the Trump administration's apparent red lines is compounded by the growing power struggle within Tehran between more pragmatic political figures and hard-line Islamist commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Supreme National Security Council.

After Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open for business, the IRGC-affiliated media outlet wrote on X, "The Foreign Ministry itself must either reconsider this type of communication or the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council must fulfill its duty," adding that only Iran's armed forces would determine which ships could pass.

"This is a scenario we feared," a senior Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "The transfer of power from the religious authorities to the IRGC — the fact that the clerics have lost their status in favor of the extremists in uniform — does not bode well. It is unclear who is in charge and who makes the decisions.”

A source close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recalled Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's decision to end the Iran-Iraq war in 1988. "When Ayatollah Khomeini agreed to end the war, he said he had to drink from a poisoned chalice," the source said of Khomeini's willingness to take a clearly undesirable off-ramp.

"With so much at stake for Tehran, including the survival of the leadership, the poisoned cup is now far more toxic for Iran, and we have no idea whether anyone in Iran is capable of making that decision."