Iran’s targeting of Turkey unlikely to upend Ankara’s strategic balancing act

ANKARA — After NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian missile before it entered Turkish airspace, analysts say the incident is unlikely to upend Ankara’s careful balancing between Tehran and its Western allies. 

The Turkish Defense Ministry said Wednesday that a ballistic missile fired from Iran was detected as it traversed Iraqi and Syrian airspace and was engaged and destroyed by NATO air and missile defense systems deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean before it could enter Turkish airspace.

“A ballistic munition fired from Iran, which was detected heading toward Turkish airspace after passing through Iraqi and Syrian airspace, was engaged in time and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense elements stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean,” the ministry said in a statement.

The statement added that debris from the intercepted missile caused no casualties, landing in Turkey’s southern Hatay province.

The ministry also warned that Turkey would act decisively to defend its territory and airspace and reserved the right to respond to any hostile act directed against the country.

“We warn all parties to refrain from steps that could lead to the further spread of conflict in the region,” it added, noting that Ankara would continue consultations with NATO and other allies.

While the ministry did not provide further details on the targeting, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US and regional officials, that the missile was intercepted by a US Navy destroyer in the Eastern Mediterranean and had been headed toward Turkey’s Incirlik air base, which hosts American forces.

Later on Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan conveyed Ankara’s dismay to Tehran during a phone call with his counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, a Turkish diplomatic source told reporters. The protest was later formally conveyed to Iran’s ambassador to Ankara, Mohammad Hassan Habibullahzadeh, who was summoned to the Foreign Ministry, the source told Al-Monitor.

Fidan urged all sides to avoid actions that could lead to broader regional escalation, the source added.

Separately, Burhanettin Duran, head of the Turkish presidency’s communications directorate, echoed a message of restraint, calling on all parties involved in the war to de-escalate.

“Turkey will continue to fulfill its responsibilities with a constructive approach to help reduce tensions in the region and resolve disputes through peaceful means,” he said in a statement on the X platform.

Iranian authorities have yet to comment on the incident.

The incident marks a fresh escalation in the war, as Turkey is the first NATO member whose territory has been directly targeted by Iran since the war began on Saturday.

Tehran’s recent strikes have largely been aimed at Israel and US military and diplomatic assets across the Middle East and Gulf — including drone and missile attacks targeting the US Embassy compound in Riyadh and on US facilities in the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states.

Iran’s targeting of Turkish territory raises the risk of NATO being drawn into the conflict, as a confirmed armed attack on one member could potentially trigger Article 5. Article 5 states that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all members under the alliance’s collective defense principle.

NATO also denounced the strike. “We condemn Iran’s targeting of Turkey. NATO stands firmly with all Allies, including Turkey, as Iran continues its indiscriminate attacks across the region,” NATO Spokesperson Allison Hart told journalists Wednesday.

Ankara, however, is unlikely to invoke the article for now, given Turkish officials’ messages of restraint.

The incident “should not be seen as an action that would completely change Turkey’s more balanced approach toward Iran,” Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM and a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, told Al-Monitor. “At least for now, the messages Ankara has been channeling do not point in that direction.”

Turkey has sought to maintain a balancing act in the current war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the US-Israeli attacks on Iran as a “violation of international law.” Meanwhile, Fidan said the Iranian attacks on regional countries amounted to “an incredibly wrong strategy.”

Ankara’s relatively measured reaction suggests it is exercising restraint rather than escalating tensions, according to Ulgen.

Ankara’s messaging suggests it is taking a “wait-and-see approach,” he said, adding that the incident is still likely to prompt greater caution from Ankara, as a ballistic missile entering Turkish airspace represents growing risks for the country.  

With reporting by Jared Szuba in Washington and Rina Bassist in Paris.

This story has been updated since first publication.