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Analysis

From Russia to Iran and Turkey: Understanding rise, narrative of ISIS-K

The jihadi group has been raising its profile since the beginning of 2024 through suicide attacks in southern Iran in January and the armed attack on an Istanbul Roman Catholic church last month.
A view shows the burnt-out Crocus City Hall concert venue in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, on March 26, 2024.

The Moscow attack by the Islamic State, or ISIS, underscores the extremist group's increasing attempts to bolster perceptions of their regaining the confidence and capability to carry out sensational attacks, as the jihadists are seeking to exploit the regional and global rivalries.

On the evening of March 22, four assailants in military gear and armed with semi-automatic weapons stormed a concert hall at the Crocus City Hall. They killed at least 130 people and wounded hundreds more before fleeing the scene. Even before ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack, several indicators were already pointing to the jihadi group, including indiscriminate shooting and the choice of so-called soft targets — such as civilians in public areas and buildings — which are particular to ISIS. Other jihadist groups have more strict guidelines regarding targeting civilians and usually prefer conducting attacks against security forces and more strategic targets.

The assailants were subsequently caught by Russian security forces as they were reportedly trying to flee to Ukrainian territory. The authorities identified all four perpetrators as Tajikistani nationals, two of whom recently traveled to Turkey to reportedly extend their stay in Russia. Tajikistan nationals can travel to Russia visa-free for trips lasting no longer than 90 days, and for citizens who leave the country, the 90-day period begins anew upon their arrival.

The complexity of the attack indicated an intricate network behind the four attackers, as the high-risk assault required months of planning, including reconnaissance and surveillance missions. Access to vehicles, weapons, equipment and funds suggests the involvement of broader local and international ISIS networks.

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