While publicly supporting Azerbaijan's 24-hour offensive into the Armenian-occupied portions of Karabakh, Turkey’s long-term interests and the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might be developing a more constructive approach to Armenia.
Ankara's top geo-political interests in the region include establishing diplomatic relations with Armenia, setting up direct trade routes to Azerbaijan and other Central Asian Turkic republics, and reducing Western and Russian influence in the South Caucasus by increasing its own footprint.
Beyond the short- and medium-term geopolitical benefits, better relations with Armenia could bolster Ankara’s global prestige. Turkish sources who spoke to Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity, describe the ongoing normalization as “a once-in-a-lifetime, historic opportunity.”
Much of impetus for the normalization talks comes from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s domestic reform agenda and his desire to move Armenia from the Russian sphere of influence and toward the West.
