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Analysis

South Syria increasingly unstable even as normalization proceeds with Assad

Economic turmoil and failed attempts at reconciliation over a decade after the beginning of Syria's civil war keep the country on unstable footing.
A picture taken on Aug. 2, 2018, shows a man riding a motorcycle past destroyed buildings in the opposition-held southern city of Daraa.

A ship carrying around 750 migrants sank off the Greek coast last week. Onboard were as many as 112 people from Daraa, a governorate in southern Syria. Daraa was captured by the Syrian army in 2018, but the state’s nominal return has brought neither stability nor security: Today, more than five years later, it is one of the most unstable regions in the country. Life there is so desperate that many are risking the dangerous journey across the sea in search of a better future.

The sinking occurred in the middle of the Assad’s latest reconciliation push in southern Syria. The reconciliation process, which began in 2018 when the south was captured by regime forces, was meant to allow former opposition fighters to “resolve” their status with the state and clear their names from its security agencies. Once they are no longer considered wanted by the regime authorities for military desertion or joining the opposition, the men are then allowed to rejoin military forces. These settlements also include a six-month period between reconciliation and re-enlistment.

Daraa, considered the birthplace of the Syrian uprising in 2011, understandably holds little trust in Assad's settlement terms. But since June 3, thousands have lined up outside Houriyat Palace, where the state erected its latest temporary reconciliation center in Daraa City.

They did this knowing that the regime, apparently more interested in punishing former rebels than bringing stability, has failed to uphold the terms of the 2018 deals. The Daraa Martyrs Documentation Office has recorded that nearly 2,000 individuals who had completed the reconciliation process were later arrested — 92 of them died in a regime prison.

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