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Analysis

Israel acknowledges inability to thwart a US-Iran 'mini agreement'

On the backdrop of strained relations with the US, Israel realizes it has limited influence only over the Biden administration’s policy on Iran.
International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors are seen at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, June 15, 2023.

TEL AVIV — Statements by Israeli officials indicate that Israel's government seems to have accepted the emerging deal between the Biden administration and Iran being hammered out in indirect negotiations facilitated by Oman

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dubbed the emerging deal a “mini agreement” in closed-door remarks this week to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, according to Israeli media. 

Since taking office, other than a few low-key mentions, Netanyahu has steered away from explicitly addressing the backchannel Washington-Tehran talks. Gone is the firebrand that waged an unprecedented global campaign almost a decade ago against the emerging agreement between world powers and Iran on curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. His relentless efforts at the time failed to block the 2015 agreement, although it did result in a US pullout from the deal in 2018.

According to Israel’s current assessment, the United States and Iran will agree on a formula of “less for less” (less US pressure/sanctions on Iran, in exchange for limited Iranian concessions) or “freeze for freeze” (freezing US sanctions in exchange of Iran freezing some of its nuke activities). Washington and Tehran may perhaps not even anchor them in a formal written and signed document. Instead, they would implement them as goodwill gestures, allowing President Joe Biden to bypass the need for congressional approval and at the same time curb Iran’s rush toward nuclear weaponization. 

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