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Al-Monitor/Premise poll: Turkey’s election in dead heat, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu tied at 45%

An exclusive poll across Turkey showed economy as top issue for voters, followed by corruption and refugees. But many young voters are still undecided in the final stretch of the race.
Supporters wave Turkish national flags as they attend a rally of Turkey's Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman and Presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Canakkale, western Turkey, on April 11, 2023. - A sea of umbrellas and hoods at his feet, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the Turkish opposition candidate who will challenge Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the polls on 14 May, smilingly promises "the return of spring". (Photo by OZAN KOSE / AFP) (Photo by OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images)

ANKARA — With less than three weeks before Turkey's elections on May 14, the race between Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his top challenger, main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, will be the closest in the country’s electoral history, according to an Al-Monitor/Premise poll.

The poll of 972 respondents was conducted by Al-Monitor in partnership with data and analytics firm Premise Data between April 18 and April 24, 2023 across Turkey. The margin of error is +/-3.

The survey found a statistical tie as support for Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu stood at 45.2% and 44.9% respectively. 

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