Analysis
Earthquake could shake up Turkish election
Democracies face more pressure than dictatorships after natural disasters; Assad is content to continue rule amidst the ruins.
Turkey: Earthquake puts Erdogan re-election at risk
Stay tuned for the political aftershocks of the devastating and tragic earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria last week.
“Earthquakes and other natural disasters shake up political systems,” write Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alistair Smith, authors of the best-selling The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics .
Whether a natural disaster can take down a government, the authors say, depends on two things: the size of the ruler’s “winning coalition,” a measure of democracy or popular support (the smaller the better for staying in power after such disasters), and how long the ruler has been in power (the longer the better).
